Thursday, April 23, 2026

Dollar hits one-month low on Middle East ceasefire

The U.S. dollar index weakened for a third consecutive day to lows of 98.838, its weakest since March 11

The dollar dropped to its lowest level in a month while the euro, yen, Aussie and sterling rallied in Asian trading on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

The U.S. dollar index weakened for a third consecutive day to lows of 98.838, its weakest since March 11.

The yen strengthened 0.8% against the U.S. dollar to 158.36 per dollar. The euro was up 0.7% at $1.1674, while the British pound rose 0.8% to $1.34. The Australian dollar jumped 1.1% to $0.7054.

Investors’ risk appetite rapidly returned after the ceasefire announcement, less than two hours before Trump’s deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would have expired.

If the strategic waterway is reopened, “we could be able to consolidate the risk-on rally that we’re seeing,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

But a lot has to happen in the next 14 days, he said, adding that currencies would be vulnerable to a retracement of their recent moves in the interim. Markets still need to proceed with a degree of scepticism.

Traders’ attention turned to central banks’ next moves as oil prices dropped sharply. Brent crude slipped 13.4% to $94.68 a barrel but was still well above pre-war levels.

The kiwi dollar jumped 1.5% to $0.5819, extending gains after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its policy rate at 2.25% on Wednesday for a second straight meeting, choosing to sit tight as it gauges the economic fallout from the war. But the central bank signalled it is ready to act if inflation pressures intensify.

Fed funds futures are pricing coin-toss odds that the U.S. central bank could cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its December 9 meeting, compared to an implied 74.5% probability a day earlier that the U.S. central bank would remain on hold, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

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