Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Dollar near one-month high as Fed rate cut bets recede

The U.S. dollar index traded little changed at 103.36 in the Asian morning, after hitting 103.69 on Wednesday for the first time since December 13

The dollar held close to a one-month high versus major rivals on Thursday after robust U.S. retail sales data overnight added to building expectations the Fed will not rush to lower interest rates.

Australia’s dollar weakened after data showed an unexpected drop in employment.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six peers, traded little changed at 103.36 in the Asian morning, after hitting 103.69 on Wednesday for the first time since December 13.

The yen was a notable exception, as it tends to move in the opposite direction of U.S. long-term yields, which also hit a one-month high overnight as dovish Fed bets receded. At the same time, investors steadily priced out hawkish BoJ wagers, not least because of the devastating New Year’s Day quake in central Japan. The BOJ meets on policy on Monday and Tuesday of next week.

Traders have pared the odds of a first Fed rate cut by March to 53.8%, down from 63.1% on Tuesday, as per CME’s FedWatch Tool.

The market is still pricing in a likely 150 bps of cuts by the end of the year, even as Fed officials including Governor Christopher Waller this week pushed back against expectations of rapid policy loosening.

Interest rate pricing seems overly optimistic given the latest retail sales report shows the U.S. consumer remains in good shape, Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG wrote in a client note.

On the dollar’s push to 148.525 yen overnight for the first time since the end of November, surpassing Sycamore’s expectations for a test of 148, Sycamore wrote “given the speed of the rally, it does raise questions about our view that the rally is countertrend.”

The dollar was nearly flat at 148.135 yen.

Meanwhile, the euro was little changed at $1.08845.

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