Dollar rises as investors cautious over trade deal progress

by Jonathan Adams

The dollar rebounded as investors headed into safer assets as caution prevailed over a comprehensive U.S.-China trade deal

The dollar rose on Monday as investors headed into safer assets after they became more cautious that progress was being made towards a comprehensive U.S.-China trade deal.

The dollar fell last week, and dropped sharply on Friday, as optimism that a trade deal could be reached, together with a restarting of Brexit talks between the European Union and Britain, pushed investors into riskier assets.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that Washington and Beijing had reached a ‘Phase 1′ trade deal.

But on Monday the U.S. currency regained its poise as investors turned slightly cautious.

Analysts said the partial deal between the world’s two largest economies appeared to lack substance with limited progress on structural issues such as technology transfers.

The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1014, while against a basket of currencies the dollar rose 0.2%, with its index at 98.517.

The greenback fell against the Japanese yen, however. The yen is considered a safe-haven currency and its quick bounce from a 2-1/2 month low touched on Friday underlined investors’ nervousness about the trade deal optimism on Monday.

Manuel Oliveri, an analyst at Credit Agricole, said the announcements so far did not amount to “a broad-based trade deal” that would justify the markets’ optimism last week.

With Tokyo’s market closed for a public holiday and a holiday in the United States for Columbus Day, trading volumes would likely remain lighter than usual.

There was also little in the way of new and important economic data due on Monday.

The yen was last up 0.2% at 108.25.

Emerging market currencies and those closely linked to broad risk sentiment, such as the Australian dollar and Swedish crown, had rallied at the end of last week.

On Monday most were lower, with the Aussie losing 0.3% to $0.6770.

The Swedish crown weakened 0.3% against the euro to 10.847.

While the tentative US-China mini deal is non-negative for markets (and in part exceeded the previously low market expectations) it in our view does not offer a durable solution to the trade conflict, ING strategists said in a research note.

Sterling fell in early London trading, shedding more than 0.5% against both the dollar and euro, after Britain and the EU stressed over the weekend that there was a long way to go before they could agree a Brexit deal.

The pound had surged to more than three-month highs last week after London and Brussels announced “intense” negotiations to try and agree a Brexit deal before Oct. 31.

This article is for information purposes only.
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