Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Dollar struggles as March rate cut odds recede

The dollar’s trade-weighted index was 0.07% lower at 103.19 and flat against the euro at $1.0898

The U.S. dollar struggled to keep gains in early Asian trade on Monday as looming central bank decisions in Japan and Europe forced a pause in its data-driven rally late last week.

Japan’s yen was the notable mover in otherwise quiet trading, as it moved away from Friday’s one-month low of 148.80. The currency has been the worst hit against the dollar this year, slipping nearly 5% in a swift reversal of December’s surge to five-month high near 140.

The BoJ’s two-day meeting begins on Monday. Wagers for an exit from negative rates at this meeting have been wound down in the wake of the New Year’s Day earthquake in Japan alongside dovish Bank of Japan commentary.

The dollar’s trade-weighted index was 0.07% lower at 103.19 and flat against the euro at $1.0898.

Its rally so far this year has been tentative and fickle as investors try to make up their minds about when the Fed will start cutting rates. Data late last week showing U.S. economic activity remains strong despite interest rates at their highest level in decades caused markets to lower expectations of rate cuts beginning as soon as in March.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Friday said she believes the U.S. economy and monetary policy are in a “good place” and it is premature to think rate cuts are imminent.

Short-term interest rate futures market show traders are betting interest rate cuts will start in May, with the chance of a March cut dropping below 50%, down from around 80% in the first weeks of January, as per CME Group data.

Chris Weston, head of research at online broker Pepperstone, said those odds were unlikely to change much until later this week when the Federal Reserve’s key inflation indicator, the core PCE price index, is due.

The USD holds a fair relationship with the evolving implied pricing for a March Fed cut, where rate cut chance falls the USD rallies, and vice versa, he wrote.

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