Spot gold was up 0.1% at $4,311.64 per ounce, extending a year-to-date rally of more than 64% that has seen bullion smash multiple records

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by a weaker dollar, as investors awaited the release of U.S. jobs data that could shape expectations for the central bank’s policy path in the new year.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $4,311.64 per ounce, as of 0230 GMT, extending a year-to-date rally of more than 64% that has seen bullion smash multiple records.

U.S. gold futures were little changed at $4,333.20.

The dollar’s performance remains subdued which is helping to keep gold prices on the front foot. Markets believe that the Fed could be underestimating the number of rate cuts next year, KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer said.

Traders are pricing in a 76% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January, with some expecting two cuts, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. This week’s data docket is expected to offer new clues on how quickly the U.S. central bank may ease policy in 2026.

Should labour market data reinforce the view that employment remains a weak spot, gold could benefit as it strengthens the case for earlier rate cuts, Waterer said.

Central bank Governor Stephen Miran said current above-target inflation does not reflect underlying supply and demand dynamics that are generating price increases much closer to the bank’s 2% target.

The combined U.S. employment reports for October and November, due later on Tuesday, will lack several details after a government shutdown curtailed data collection, including October’s unemployment rate.

ANZ analysts flagged upside risks, saying gold could test $5,000 an ounce next year.

Spot silver dropped 1.2% to $63.11 an ounce, hovering near Friday’s record high of $64.65.

KCM’s Waterer said the metal retains a bullish undertone as industrial demand shows no signs of abating, after a 121% rally this year driven by firm industrial and investment demand and tightening inventories.