Spot gold gained 1% to settle at $4,415.91/oz, while gold futures rose 1.1% to settle at $4,473.30/oz

Gold prices ticked up 1% on Monday, helped by a weaker dollar amid fading expectations of U.S. central bank interest rate hikes. A rise in oil prices capped bullion’s gains.

Spot gold gained 1% to settle at $4,415.91/oz, while gold futures rose 1.1% to settle at $4,473.30/oz.

Precious metal market participants are coming off a key week in which the economic calendar showed a moderation in annual consumer and producer inflation across both headline and core measures in July.

Interest rate odds reacted accordingly. As per the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the central bank holding rates steady in September stand at around 63%, while the chances of a quarter-point hike are at almost 37%.

There will likely be some more insight into the central bank’s thinking later this week when the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) July meeting will be published. Three regional central bank presidents had dissented with the FOMC’s move to hold rates steady, and watchers of monetary policy will be keen to see if there will be any more hawkish commentary in the minutes.

Quarterly results from major U.S. retailers will also give some insight into the state of the consumer.

Retail earnings data to be released this week paired with minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting will offer significant clues about the health of the consumer as well as where the committee as a whole stands regarding monetary policy, José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said.

Indeed, recent economic data on employment growth, spending and sentiment have been awful, and quarterlies from large-cap vendors are poised to provide another set of evidence that either confirms or refutes shopper slowdown anxieties, he said.

The results are scheduled to arrive just as fixed-income watchers have pared back Fed hike expectations due to a belief that contracting payrolls are a meaningful risk that the central bank must pay attention to despite Chair Kevin Warsh’s unwavering focus on inflation, Torres added.

Gold’s gains on Monday were capped by rising oil prices, with Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, topping $90 a barrel.