The SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020, alleging that its XRP token’s sale represented an unregistered securities offering

Pro-XRP lawyer John Deaton has tipped below 3 per cent possibility for the US Securities and Exchange Commission to achieve an outright victory against Ripple, as a conclusion to the long-running lawsuit comes closer.

The Securities and Exchange Commission filed a lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020, alleging that its XRP token’s sale represented an unregistered securities offering.

In a June 3 episode of The Good Morning Crypto podcast, the CryptoLaw founder said he tipped a 25 per cent possibility that presiding U.S. District Judge Torres rules in favour of Ripple straight away, and a 50 per cent possibility that Ripple achieves a win by “splitting the baby” ruling.

This refers to Judge Torress “drawing a line in the sand,” where she could possibly rule that XRP was offered as an unregistered security prior to 2018. But, in the wake of the Hinman documents — which refer to internal Securities and Exchange Commission messages regarding speech given by ex-Securities and Exchange Commission Director William Hinman in 2018 — it is possible that cryptocurrencies can move from securities to commodities after they become adequately decentralized.

I think that XRP itself is going to be considered not a security and that I think that secondary market sales show that. Even if (Judge Torres) does rule that Ripple infringed the law, it does not apply to secondary market sales, he added.

While Ripple executives including its Chief Executive Officer Brad Garlinghouse have long been forecasting an impending resolution to the lawsuit from Securities and Exchange Commission, Deaton underscored that Judge Torres will most likely come to a final decision prior to September 30 this year.

He drew attention to what he called a “six-month list” that district judges must file to Congress. The list includes all of the summary judgements that have been pending for more than six months. It is published on the last day of March and the last day of September.