Stock markets enter the new week firmly on the back foot, having seen much of the ground gained in October given back in the space of a week. Last week markets were increasing their expectations of a December rate hike, and those expectations have been given a further boost by speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers that suggest Janet Yellen and her team are now quite comfortable with the idea. Mario Draghi continues to drop increasing hints about an increase in eurozone QE, which has driven down the euro but done little for stock markets.
Economic news this week is dominated by inflation numbers from the eurozone, UK, US and Canada, which will drive FX movements. Also of note will be German ZEW and UK retail sales.
Corporate news is reduced by the end of US earnings season, with only a few American names left to report. However, full-year figures from Enterprise Inns and easyJet will dominate the UK, along with a first-half report from Johnson Matthey and British Land, plus a trading update from housebuilder Taylor Wimpey.
Monday 16 November
10am – eurozone inflation figures (October, final): expected to be 0% YoY from previous estimate of -0.1%. Market to watch: EUR crosses
Tuesday 17 November
12.30am – RBA meeting minutes: watch for any signs of increased possibility of rate cuts, although recent Australian job numbers will diminish the impact of any dovish commentary. Market to watch: AUD crosses
9.30am – UK CPI data (October): expected to be -0.2% YoY from -0.1%, while core inflation holds at 1% YoY. Market to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW (November): economic sentiment forecast to drop to -2.5 from 1.9, while the current conditions number holds around 55. Market to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
1.30pm – US CPI (October): core inflation expected to hold steady at 1.9%, while overall inflation grows by 0.1%, from 0% in September. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Wednesday 18 November
1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (October): starts expected to drop to an annual rate of -2.1%, while building permits increase to 3.2% from -5%. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3.30pm – US crude inventories: forecast to increase by 1.7 million barrels, down from the 4.2 million a week earlier. Market to watch: US light crude
7pm – Fed minutes: while the most recent meeting didn’t change anything in policy terms, the message from later speeches has clearly indicated that December is now a very real possibility where rate hikes are concerned. The minutes may well back this up. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday 19 November
4am – BoJ interest rate decision: watch for any comments regarding fresh easing. Market to watch: Nikkei, JPY crosses
9.30am – UK retail sales (October): expected to see an increase of 5% in sales YoY, down from a rise of 6.5% in September. Market to watch: GBP crosses
3pm – US leading index (October), Philadelphia Fed mfg index (November): leading index forecast to rise by 0.4% from -0.2%, while the volatile Philly Fed number rises to 0.5 from -4.5. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Friday 20 November
1.30pm – Canadian inflation data (October): expected to hold steady at 1% YoY.
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