Brent crude futures gained 12 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $64.89 a barrel

Oil prices held steady on Monday as the market balanced the latest OPEC+ supply hike with the group’s plans to pause output hike in the first quarter of 2026 along with fears of an oil supply glut and weak factory data in Asia.

Brent crude futures gained 12 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $64.89 a barrel.

OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers, agreed on Sunday to increase output by a small 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December.

OPEC+ also agreed to pause increases in the first quarter of next year.

Any negative price implications from OPEC’s furtherance of this quarter’s 137,000 bpd production increase were offset by the cartel’s suggested pause in output advances after the end of this year, analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

On Monday, Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude forecast for the first half of 2026 to $60 a barrel from $57.50, citing the decision by OPEC+ to pause quota hikes in the first quarter of next year and recent on Russian oil assets.

Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the global oil market faces a surplus next year of as much as 4 million bpd. OPEC expects global oil supply and demand to balance next year.

Headwinds for Asia’s big manufacturing hubs persisted in October, business surveys showed on Monday. Asia is the world’s biggest oil-consuming region.

Chinese oil demand growth has slowed since 2020 as the country transitions to greener energy, oil major TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said on Monday. He said he remained optimistic long-term due to growing demand in India.